THE tropical Pacific remains neutral with respect to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, with most atmospheric and oceanic indicators well within the neutral range. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicated the tropical Pacific was expected to remain neutral at least through to the austral autumn.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral. It typically does not influence the Australian climate from December to April.
The sea surface temperature anomaly map for November showed these were near average along most of the equatorial Pacific, similar to last month.
Weak cool anomalies remained in the far eastern Pacific, south of the equator and along the coast of Peru, while generally weak warm anomalies persisted west of the Date Line and around the South Pacific Convergence Zone.
Sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific remained similar to two weeks ago, although Nino indices for the central and western equatorial Pacific cooled slightly. The anomaly map for the week ending December 15 showed near-average temperatures across the central tropical Pacific, with weak warm anomalies west of the Date Line and weak-to-moderate warm anomalies around the SPCZ.
In the eastern tropical Pacific, sea surface temperatures were generally near average around the equator, with cool anomalies between the southern tropics and southern mid-latitudes. Warm anomalies also remained around the western half of Australia, having strengthened along the north-west coast, compared with two weeks ago.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology