THE monthly SOI value for September was plus 3.2 and for October was plus 2.3.
These values place the SOI in a "Consistently Near Zero" phase.
Based on this SOI phase and available rainfall records, there is a 40 - 60% (or near normal) chance of getting above median rainfall for November through to the end of January, throughout most of Queensland.
The last time there was a Consistently Near Zero SOI phase at the end of October was in 2007.
Other years since 1950 that had the same SOI phase at the end of October include: 1954, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2001, 2003 and 2004.
It may be useful to find out what rainfall and seasonal conditions were like in your area for November to January in those years.
More information can be found at longpaddock.qld.gov.au or in Rainman StreamFlow.
When using a climate forecast you should remember the probability or percent chance of something occurring is just that - a probability. For example, if there is a 70% chance of recording more than 100mm there is also a 30% chance of recording less than 100 mm i.e. 70-30; 30-70.
It does not mean you will get 70% more than 100mm or 100mm plus another 70%.
Emerald, for example, has about a 70% chance of getting above 180mm for November to January. This also means there is a 30% chance of NOT getting above 180mm.
Another way of looking at this is historically in about seven years out of 10, with the current SOI phase, Mundubbera has received at least 180mm during November to January.
Therefore, in three years out of 10 with the current SOI phase, Mundubbera had less than 180mm during November to January.
At November 6, the 30 day average of the SOI was plus 4.6.
There is a reduced risk of an El Nino developing this spring and summer.
And I ammore confident SOI values should generally remain at least close to neutral, if not weakly positive.
For those interested, the monthly SOI value for October last year was plus 9.6.
To keep updated, you can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile.
To subscribe, phone me on 4529 1343 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
For more climate related information go to longpaddock.qld.gov.au
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