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Neutral weather patterns likely to continue

Storm clouds roll in from the west at Peak Crossing.
Storm clouds roll in from the west at Peak Crossing. Sarah Harvey

ACCORDING to the latest ENSO wrap-up from the Bureau of Meteorology, there have been no significant changes to Pacific Ocean climate drivers in the past few weeks.

This is reflected by key indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index, sea surface temperatures and trade winds all at near-normal levels.

This pattern is expected to continue with no indication of either a La Nina or El Nino likely to develop in the short to medium term.

Of the seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology (including the Bureau's own POAMA model), all indicate that a neutral climate pattern will persist through to at least February next year.

To keep updated, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.

For a USA perspective on likely changes in the Pacific, try the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation event is slowly moving eastward across the Pacific Ocean.

Based on its standard timing, it would not be expected to travel across Australian longitudes again before the second half of November.

The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa.

It travels eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30-60 days.

The impact of the MJO across northern Australia is generally greater during late spring and summer, and is used as an indicator for the timing of potential rainfall events and cyclones.

For more information, see http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo.

Based on a near zero SOI phase at the end of September, the chance of getting median rainfall for October to December is between 40 to 50% (or near average) for Queensland. As of October 15, the 30-day average of the SOI was plus 6.2.

For more information, including on the SPOTA-1 November to March outlook, go to http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au.

Topics:  climate watch dave mcrae el nino la nina weather


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