TROPICAL cyclone activity over the Australian region (5°S-40°S, 90°E-160°E) is likely to be below average during the 2012-2013 season.
The outlook indicates a 37% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average over the Australia region - or a 63% chance of having fewer. Such odds mean that, for every 10 years with similar ocean patterns to those currently observed, about three to four years would be expected to have an above-average number of tropical cyclones, while about six to seven years would be expected to have a below-average number of tropical cyclones.
Past outlooks have shown that the Australian region outlook has high accuracy. The outlook is based upon the status of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September period and this year neutral to borderline El Nino conditions were present in these months.
Historically, these conditions have favoured an average to below-average number of tropical cyclones in the regions around Australia.
The eastern region forecast indicates a 43% chance of an above-average - 57% chance of below-average - number of tropical cyclones will form in the region. About 25% of tropical cyclones in the eastern region cross the coast, with fewest crossings in El Nino years.
- Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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