NEAR-average tropical cyclone activity is most likely for the Australian region this season.
The tropical Pacific Ocean, which affects tropical cyclone activity in Australia, is neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina), meaning there is no strong shift expected in the average number or location of tropical cyclones.
The typical Australian tropical cyclone season has most tropical cyclones between November 1 and April 30, averages about 11 tropical cyclones, sees an average of four tropical cyclones cross the coast (though coastal impacts can be felt when tropical cyclones remain well offshore), on average has its first cyclone cross the coast in late December.
This outlook is based upon the status of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July-to-September period.
In 2013, neutral conditions were present during these months in the Pacific.
Neutral conditions are also forecast to continue through the southern summer.
In the absence of El Nino or La Nina (ie, neutral years), tropical cyclone numbers around Australia are most often close to average, though individual years can be above or below the long-term mean.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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