Warmer Spring tipped
ACCORDING to the Bureau of Meteorology, daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for spring. Throughout Queensland there is a 60% to greater than 75% chance that average maximum temperatures will be above median during September to November (refer to map, top right). Another way of thinking of this is that in six to eight years out of 10 with the current climate pattern, maximum temperatures during September to November will be warmer than normal. Therefore in two to four years out of ten, maximum temperatures will be cooler than normal.
Warmer than normal nights are also more likely for north Queensland with a 60-70% chance that minimum temperatures will be above median during September to November. Throughout the rest of the state, it is likely that night-time temperatures will be closer to normal with a 45-55% chance getting above median minimum temperatures this spring. More detailed information on temperature outlooks can be found at bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ Climate data (average temperatures, rainfall etc) for Queensland can be found at bom.gov.au/climate/data/
Reflecting the ongoing instability with climate drivers in the Pacific due to the on-again/off-again El Niño event, SOI values have continued to fluctuate. As at August 27 the 30-day average of the SOI was minus 8.7. This is down from plus 0.1 at the start of the month. If consistently negative SOI values (below say minus 5.0) become established it will negatively impact on the seasonal outlook by increasing the likelihood of a drier and later than normal start to spring. So this would mean considering what a potentially drier and warmer than normal finish to winter and start to spring would mean to your enterprise.
It is worth remembering we are still in our "traditional dry season". August and September for most locations in Queensland have low median monthly rainfall totals. For example, median rainfall for August and September at Blackall is 9mm and 6mm, at Emerald is 10mm and 9mm, at Goondiwindi is 26mm and 34mm, at Toowoomba is 33mm and 41mm and Mareeba is 2mm and 2mm. So while there have been some exceptional rain events at this time of year it is not common.
Updates on changes in SOI values and the seasonal outlook can be found at longpaddock.qld.gov.au. I'm also happy to give climate presentations at meetings or field days etc. If interested email me at david.mcrae@derm.qld.gov.au
